The prospects of a strong agricultural growth performance in 2013–14 have improved with a favourable monsoon in the current year. The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council has projected a growth of 4.8 per cent for GDP from agriculture and allied sectors in 2013–14 as compared to 1.9 per cent in 2012–13. As the economic activity at the overall level is expected to register about the same pace of growth in the current year as in 2012–13, contribution from agriculture towards sustaining overall economic growth would be significant. The heavy rains and floods following the cyclone in eastern region of the country have been adversities in the crop season. The heavy rains and floods in Uttaranchal in the early part of the monsoon season took heavy toll on life and property.

November 2013 The high food inflation experience of the recent year and a half has both supply and demand side explanations. There are cost push elements such as the rise in input prices and demand pull elements such as the rising demand for fruits, vegetables and livestock products. There will be a need to push for increased production and also investments in post-harvest marketing, and management of food commodities to reduce losses and improve efficiency of supply chains. An important dimension on the price front is also the global supply situation which has both positive and challenging ramifications for India. For the current year global supplies have been projected to be adequate to meet the demand for the major food commodities and the yearend stocks are expected to be higher than the beginning stocks. This implies reasonably priced imports of edible oils and pulses but also poses competitive pricing environment for exports. The 1st Advance Estimates of production brought out by the Ministry of Agriculture place kharif foodgrain production at 129.3 million tonnes, 1.1 million tonnes above the kharif production in the previous year. An assessment based on rainfall and trend pattern of production places, production of kharif foodgrains at 133.5 to 138.4 million tonnes, well above the 1st AE. Kharif rice production for the current year has been projected at 92.3 million tonnes as per the 1st AE by the Ministry of Agriculture. Our own assessment based on rainfall data and trend pattern places kharif rice production at 94.3–97.3 million tonnes an upward revision of our projection in the previous quarterly report. The WPI for rice is expected to show some decline in December but the year on year rate of increase is projected remain at double digit rates in the short-term.:

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