Second Semi-Annual Medium Term Agricultural Outlook Report

The outlook for agriculture in 2013–14 is positive with a number of indicators being favourable for a good harvest. Forecast of a near normal monsoon rainfall this year is a critical leading indicator of a positive outlook for this year. The rainfall in June has been well above normal at the all India level with less than normal precipitation only in the East and North Eastern region. The prediction for July is for close to normal rainfall which augurs well for kharif plantings.

At the global level, prices of major food commodities have shown moderating trend from the high levels seen in the second half of 2012. Projected increased production of major grains and vegetable oils in the current year is lending stability in prices. Only in the case of dairy products, prices are seen to be rising. Although global economic growth is expected to register only modest improvement, India’s exports of grains would be affected by their competitiveness in the world markets.

The minimum support prices (MSP) for kharif crops this year maintain incentives for food production and address the need to raise production of pulses and oilseeds: in the case of rice, the MSP has been raised by 4.8 per cent and in the case of tur (arhar) the increase is about 11 per cent and for the oilseed crop of soybean it is set even greater by 13-14 per cent.

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